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When the Eaton Fire burned in Los Angeles County in early January, 75% of the structures in the fire perimeter had a low to moderate wildfire hazard, but they carried a high to very high conflagration hazard. Eighty-four percent of structures affected or destroyed by the blaze carried this very high conflagration categorization, a new analysis shows.

Cotality conducted a retrospective analysis of the devastating Palisades and Eaton fires using two of its wildfire products and shared the results in That analysis found that properties assessed as low or moderate wildfire hazard may still face high or very high conflagration risk, especially in wildfire-prone areas.

Wildfire-induced conflagration occurs when wildfire transitions from a natural vegetation environment into a built environment, allowing fire to spread between structures. Cotality determines conflagration hazard based on how the structures themselves can contribute to the potential for loss once a wildfire meets the built environment. That assement includes structure density, structure characteristics, weather and climate.

It differs from wildfire risk, which looks at the hazard on or surrounding a location by considering factors like risk on the property, distance to high-hazard fuels, open wildland, as well as wind and drought.

While this transition between environments may seem subtle, it fundamentally alters the fire’s behavior, impacting how it spreads, where it travels and the scale of its potential destruction, Cotality, formerly CoreLogic, said in its report.

“This is important for carriers, as there is heightened risk tied to certain structures because of the factors that drive conflagration,” Jamie Knippen, the data and technology company’s wildfire product manager, said in an interview. “And that’s what we saw in [the] Palisades and Eaton [fires], and why so many structures were ultimately destroyed.”

The structures were densely packed—some standing less than 10 feet apart from each other—and many were older homes that weren’t as mitigated as they potentially could have been because they weren’t required to adhere to new California building codes, Knippen explained.

Related: While LA Burned, Rules to Protect Homes From Wildfires Were on Hold

The drought and high winds affecting Southern California at the time created “the perfect storm,” Knippen said, which ultimately caused conflagration to destroy thousands of homes.

“I think it’s something that a lot of people don’t recognize,” she said. “Especially homeowners. That there might be additive risk because of things that contribute to conflagration. And because of this, it kind of calls out even more [for] the need for homeowners to be aware of their risk but also be aware of what can be done to make their property more resilient and the different mitigation efforts that entails.”

CalFire incident updates show the Palisades and Eaton fires destroyed more than 16,000 structures and damaged another 2,046. In March, the Anderson School of Management at UCLA shared numbers projecting that total property and capital losses from the fires could range between $76 billion and $131 billion, with insured losses estimated up to $45 billion. More than have already been paid on the wildfires, the latest data show.

A Cotality analysis of the Palisades Fire found that 37% of properties within the perimeter were classified as low-to-moderate wildfire hazard yet had high conflagration hazard. Forty-eight percent of destroyed properties fell into this category.

Cotality reported that at least 10 major wildfire-induced conflagrations—including the Palisades and Eaton fires, the 2023 Lahaina fire in Hawaii and the 2021 Marshall fire in Colorado—have destroyed more than 26,000 structures in the past five years.

“This rising trend highlights the urgent need to improve how we identify and manage at-risk properties. As wildfire seasons grow longer and more intense, it becomes increasingly important to assess both wildfire and conflagration hazards to effectively understand and mitigate the total threat landscape,” the report states.

Charting U.S. Wildfire Risk

In its report, Cotality shared that the 2.6 million Western U.S. homes with moderate or greater wildfire risk carry a combined reconstruction cost value of $1.3 trillion. The company reported that nearly half (approximately 1.2 million) of these homes have very high wildfire risk.

“California, Colorado, and Texas have more homes with elevated wildfire risk than all the other states Cotality modeled,” the report said. “While California claims eight of the 15 most at-risk metropolitan areas, [the] Austin, TX; Denver, CO; Bend, OR; and Flagstaff, AZ metropolitan areas also sit among the nation’s top 15 areas in number of homes with moderate-to-high wildfire risk.”

Cotality said these metros sit at the top of the list because of their homes’ proximity to nature. More homes are being built in the wildland-urban interface, the report said, where their adjacency to forested or undeveloped areas elevates their risk.

Maps detailing residential properties and their wildfire risk in California, Texas and Colorado can be found in the report, as can information about the insurance-to-value issue surfacing in California and more.

Top photo: Search and toxic clean up after 2025 Eaton Fire. Source CalFire.

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